Tuesday 2 September 2014

The Ukrainian Question

The current crisis in Ukraine and that is UKRAINE, not THE UKRAINE which is an altogether larger historical and disputed geopolitical region is continuing to thrust itself into the international spotlight. The crisis will be at the top of the agenda in the upcoming NATO summit in Wales and it appears the conflict is only going to escalate unless leadership on all sides is taken.

The big problem in this NATO-Russia-Ukraine triad of relations is a complete lack of understanding on all sides. I shall deal with each party and hopefully help to explain how they can all solve the situation.

1. Russia. Vladimir Putin, although he denies, has invaded and is interfering in a sovereign state- a member of the United Nations and is almost certainly against international law. This does Russia no favours and gives it a negative and aggressive reputation within many countries, particularly weary governments in Eastern Europe such as Poland whom have had such a difficult historical relationship with Russia. Vladimir Putin using military force only devalues the influence Russia can have in being able to work cooperatively with NATO and the West.

2. NATO. The military alliance has played a leading role in the criticism of Russia, rightly so in terms of the violation of Ukraine's sovereignty. However, what NATO and the West fail to understand is the sense of disenfranchisement and alienation felt in places like Crimea and the Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine. Many here have deep affinity for Russia and for some it has meant taking up arms as a last resort as the Kiev government is offering no concrete change such as devolution. Also, Ukraine is NOT a member of NATO which does not oblige the organisation to defend it in the event of invasion. However, the Kiev government has stated it's recent intention to seek membership of the alliance. This is problematic as Russia continually feels encircled and threatened by NATO- stoking tensions further. Ceasing accession talks temporarily could help stabilise relations.

3. Ukraine. The 'Revolution' as was seen a few months back when the pro-Russian regime was toppled was essentially a coup d'état. A democratically elected government was overthrown and there did appear to be a worrying amount of fundamental nationalists within the factions. This only serves to alienate those in the East of the country further and reinforces their claims of persecution and disenfranchisement. The Kiev government recently elected has also not done itself any favours and has made no attempts to reconcile the pro-Russian factions, instead meeting them with force.

4. Solutions. This is no easy task. However, all sides must recognise realities and de-escalate the situation. Russia must cease all invasions and instead come to the negotiating table alongside their allies in Ukraine and the Kiev government must acknowledge the grievances of their Eastern citizens and whilst maintaining that Russian intervention is completely unacceptable. NATO, the EU and the United States should be offering support to both sides and offer reassurance to Russia, an important member of the international community who should be working alongside side the West with issues such as anti-terrorism. After all, the threats of war seem to be very ironic and if war was to come, it would be very sad indeed considering the world's commemoration and remembrance of the First World War.

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